Freight Frenzy Is Over, We’ve Entered Logistics Purgatory
September 9, 2025
Freight frenzy is over logistics purgatory reveals falling rates excess capacity and weak demand showing the freight industry stuck in limbo.
Ocean Overload Meets Desperate Discounts
Ocean freight rates have collapsed, plunging 60–70% since the tariff-fueled June rush. Transpacific spot rates are now at their lowest levels since December 2023, a sharp reversal after years of volatility. Asia–Europe lanes aren’t faring much better, sitting about 60% lower year-over-year as carriers slash prices to fill half-empty vessels.
The imbalance comes down to basic math. The global container fleet is projected to grow 8% this year, while container demand is expected to creep up just 3%. Too many ships, not enough goods to move, simple as that.
Air Freight Is Losing Altitude
Air cargo is under similar pressure. Despite a 3% increase in demand during the first half of 2025, spot rates in June fell 4% year-over-year, dropping to just $2.50 per kilogram. Southeast Asia to North America routes were hit hardest, falling 11%, while global load factor slipped two points to 56%.
Air freight traffic slowed dramatically in June. Cargo-tonne kilometers grew only 0.8%, down from 2.2% the month prior. North American volumes plunged 8.3%, with Asia-North America lanes bearing the brunt. The only bright spot was Asia-Europe, which climbed 10.5% year-over-year.
The Verdict: Logistics Limbo
The pandemic-fueled boom is officially dead. Freight isn’t rebounding, it’s stuck in neutral. Overcapacity and “phantom” demand are creating a vicious cycle of falling rates and rising uncertainty. If you think this is the start of a comeback, you’re already behind. The freight frenzy is over, and the industry has entered logistics purgatory.
